Little confidence in new Government – Paddy Power Poll

Published by: Richard Colwell


Confidence in Government to Last

  • Over half the population (52%) do not have confidence in the government to run the country, including 20% of Fine Gael voters, and 69% of those who voted for Independent candidates. Confidence is lowest among the 25-54 year old age groups.
  • It is no surprise then that almost half of all voters (45%) do not believe the government will last more than a year, with almost a third (31%) of Fine Gael voters feeling that this will be the case.
  • Well over half of all voters (56%) also believe that the lack of a government has been harmful to the Irish Economy.

Vote Behaviour

  • The slow pace of formation on a new government appears to have had little impact on voters claimed behaviour if another election were to be held tomorrow, with support for most of the major parties within the margin of error of the actual result.
  • Fine Gael (27%) retain a small lead over Fianna Fail (25%), and this is actually even closer when decimal point rounding is removed. Sinn Fein do see some small gains in support rising to 16%, approximately 2% ahead of what they achieved at the election. Labour at 5% support are 2% below what they achieved at the last election.
  • The Independent candidates appear to have suffered most following the government formation, with Independent Candidates down 4% to secure 9% in this poll, while the Independent Alliance are also down 1% since the election, continuing an apparent downward trend, albeit within the margin of error.
  • The AAA-PBP, Greens and the Social Democrats all appear to come out of negotiations quite well, despite most not having taken part, with gains for all three parties vs the actual election results.

Figurehead Satisfaction

  • Micheal Martin sees his satisfaction rating fall back from the highs of the campaign but does still get better ratings than any of his competitive set – his rating among his own party supporters is however at its highest level ever. Enda Kenny’s ratings also fall back, with Shane Ross (measured for the first time) at a similar level to him. Gerry Adams satisfaction ratings are at the lowest level seen for some time.

Fine Gael Leadership

  • Almost half of all voters (48%) believe that Enda Kenny should step down now as leader of Fine Gael and Taoiseach, including 18% of Fine Gael voters; while a further 18% believe he should go in the next 1-2 years. Just under 1 in 5 believe he should stay the full length of his term in office.
  • Leo Varadkar is the voters favourite to succeed Enda Kenny, with 32% of all voters and 39% of Fine Gale voters supporting him to replace the current Taoiseach. Varadkar support is relatively stronger among younger voters, those in more upmarket social groups and in Dublin.
  • Simon Coveney is the second favourite to succeed Enda Kenny with 25% support among all voters and 28% among Fine Gael voters. His support is much more polarised, with very strong support among older voters, but much weaker support among younger age groups.

Irish Water

  • A significant proportion of voters (61%) believe that Irish Water should now be abolished, with those in younger age groups and Sinn Fein supporters most likely to feel this.
  • Over two thirds (71%) also believe that those who have paid their water charges to date should be refunded, while only around a third of voters (34%) feel that those who haven’t paid should be perused through the courts for payment.
  • Despite this well over half of voters (59%) suggest that they would pay water charges in the future were they to be introduced again.

Download the full report below

Paddy Power 13th May 2016 Poll Report