GE11 – Regional Analysis – update 23rd Feb

Published by: Richard Colwell


Fine Gael leads vote share in all regions.
A regional update of the polls, including the latest poll published on the 23rd February, shows a similar picture as those seen previously.  Small gains are seen for Fine Gael in Dublin, Leinster outside of Dublin and Connaught/Ulster.  This leaves the party ahead in all regions, with particular strengths in Connaught and Ulster.

Labours share remains steady in most regions, with a small decline in Munster. Dublin remains a core strength and Connaught/Ulster their big weakness.  They will be happy to see the undecided voters are highest in Dublin, suggesting they could still do better in this region.  However the most recent poll sees their Dublin share eroded by Fine Gael.

Fianna Fail share declines further in Dublin, Rest of Leinster, and Connaught/Ulster.  The Fianna Fail share in Dublin is now level with Sinn Fein across the four poll average.  However FF voters are perhaps more likely to turnout than SF voters.

Sinn Fein see losses in share in the Rest of Leinster outside of Dublin, but elsewhere share is steady.  With Independents improving share in Leinster, but falling back in Connaught/Ulster.

Green share is relatively stable, but the party sees a small decrease in Leinster and an increase in Connaught/Ulster.

General Election Regional Analysis – 23rd Feb 2011