RTE TG4 Local, European and Divorce Referendum Exit Poll

Published by: Posted by RED C RESEARCH


The RTE TG4 exit poll is predicting wide spread gains for Green party both in the local elections, and also for three candidates in the European Elections.

Fine Gael look likely to do well in the European Elections, topping the poll in both the South and Midlands North West constituencies, and coming second in the Dublin constituency.  There is a chance that the party could secure four seats.

Fianna Fail look on course to secure a seat in the South constituency, and also a chance to secure a seat in the Dublin constituency, while retaining a similar level of seats in the local elections.

Sinn Fein could also secure three seats in the European Elections, but their vote share is predicted to be down in both these and the Local Elections.

The Divorce Referendum looks set to be supported by the great majority of voters, wit the exit poll suggesting that up to 87% support may materialise.

The full results can be downloaded below.

Sample Size

The results of this exit opinion poll are based upon a representative randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters in the elections of 24th May 2019.


In a truly random and representative sample, the margin for error at 95% confidence for the total sample of 3,016  should be a minimum of + or – 2%.

However, the approach to opinion and exit polling does not provide for a 100% random sample. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error, due to issues such as refusal levels and location choice.  As such the margin for error could be somewhat higher than this, at more like + or – 3%.

378419 – RTE – Exit Poll – European Elections, Local Elections and Divorce Referendum – le Gaeilge FINAL