Paddy Power – Final GE16 Poll

Published by: Richard Colwell


The final poll for RED C before election day, taken over the final weekend of campaigning, sees only small changes in performance across the main parties.

  • Fine Gael retain the largest party status by once again securing 30% of the first preference vote, the same as they achieved last week.
  • However, with Labour falling back slightly to end up with just 7% of the first preference vote in this final poll, the chances of the combined share being enough between the two parties to secure a majority is now very slim.
  • Instead it is Fianna Fail who mirror the small gains seen in other polls over the weekend, with a rise of 2%, leaving the party securing 20% of the first preference vote.
  • The basis for this gain must in no small part be due to the performance of their leader Micheal Martin who secures a significant increase in those rating him 6 or more out of 10.
  • Sinn Fein drop another 1%, after some relatively heavy declines during the week, and end up securing 15% of the first preference vote.
  • Once again Independent candidates and other smaller parties retain a very large share of the vote at 28% overall.
  • This splits down to 16% for Independent candidates, (including 2% for Independent Alliance candidates) which is a gain of 2% on the last poll.
  • Then relatively steady share for the other parties including, 4% for the Social Democrats, 3% for Anti Austerity Alliance – People Before Profit, 3% for the Greens (down 1% on the last two polls), and 2% for Renua.
  • Very few voters claim to remain undecided in this poll – with just 10% overall, and just 7% among those who are likely to actually go and vote, suggesting there is a real momentum to decision making – the trend for a move from Undecided to voting for Independent candidates continues, and at this stage look likely to be replicated on polling day.
  • Apart from the major gains in satisfaction seen with the performance of Micheal Martin, there are also strong gains for Enda Kenny own ratings of +7% despite some wobble at the start of the campaign, however Joan Burton and Gerry Adams rating do not improve despite heavy focus during the campaign.
  • When asked what they think the election results will be (Wisdom of Crowds) voters reactions remain similar to that seen last week, with small drops for the current government parties and small gains for Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Independent/Others.
  • We are not sure if this type of analysis will work as well in a General Election as it did in the past for the referendum, as there are potentially many families and households where who people are voting for has not even been discussed, and you do need a knowledgeable crowd to make it work.
  • However again it suggests the voters still believe Labour will do somewhat better than all the polls have suggested, with Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein also doing slightly better in the crowds mind than this poll of stated intention suggests.
  • Well over half of all voters (55%) claim that they do believe that gender quotas are important, but that does leave a third who don’t feel it is important. Those most likely to agree are women and those in younger age groups.
  • Just under half (48%) of all voters also feel that it would be useful to have gender quotas on any future cabinet, again with women and those in younger age groups more interested in this possibility.
  • Having said that very few claim that they will vote on a gender basis, with only 21% agreeing and over half disagree strongly that they would vote on this basis. Labour, Fianna Fail and older voters are more likely to suggest they will vote based on gender.
  • Just under a third (31%) also feel that there should be LGBT quotas in future general election, with men far more against this than women.
  • The possible impact of Donald Trump becoming president of the USA were also covered in the poll – with just under a third (31%) suggesting they would be less likely to travel to the USA as a result. The great majority (81%) disagree that the world would be a safer place with Donald Trump as President.

Download the full report below:-

Paddy Power 23rd Feb 2016 Poll Report – GE16