Labour support collapse as voters await new leader

Published by: Richard Colwell


Fine Gael and Labour both suffer heavy declines in support in the first RED C poll following the Local and European Elections, conducted for Paddy Power. The Labour fall is the most pronounced, with the party dropping 7% since the last RED C poll for the Sunday Business Post, and can be partially attributed to the lack of a new leader at this stage. Fine Gael also falls back however, down 3% since the last poll, to see them secure just 22%, one of their lowest share of the votes since the last election.
Independent candidates make the strongest gains, with a very significant 9% increase in support, leaving them securing almost a third of the total electorate at 32% support. Sinn Féin also makes gains, picking up 4% more of the first preference vote to leave the party securing 22% of the vote overall – as such Sinn Féin joins Fine Gael as the largest parties in the state.
Fianna Fail also notes declines in support in this poll, despite an apparent backlash against the government, which will be extremely disappointing for the party. Support for Fianna Fail drops by 3% to leave them securing 18% overall, just 1% higher than at the last general election.

In terms of leaders, Gerry Adams is the only party leader to see and improved rating, with support for Enda Kenny slipping, and Micheal Martin only receiving 62% support among Fianna Fail voters.

When asked about new leaders for Labour, Joan Burton is the clear favourite among all voters, with 55% suggesting they would prefer her as leader, and this rises further to 61% of all Labour voters. It is also clear that Joan Burton will have most impact on the fortunes of the party overall among voters, with definite support for the party rising to 6% with her as leader, and a potential to increase this support back to close to 20% overall. Out and out rejectors of the party also falls with Burton in charge suggesting she has the opportunity to re-invigorate the party among the electorate. In contrast, definite support for Labour with Alex White as leader appears to fall back further from where it stands at the moment, and the potential for future gains is also less at 13%.

Download the full report below:-
Paddy Power June 2014 Poll Report – Final