Turnout predictions GE11 – 65%+?

Published by: Richard Colwell

2011.02.25

RED C  have conducted an analysis of our likelihood to vote question, on all the polls conducted over the campaign,  in an effort to try and predict actual turnout today.

This analysis is not an exact science, as there is a theory that people who are willing to conduct an opinion poll, are slightly more likely to vote, but we have had a stab anyway!

The estimates are worked out by giving a weight to each person in the poll, based on their answers to the question that asks them how likely they are to vote:-

Q1.  I would like you to think about what you would do if there were to be a general election tomorrow.  Some people would go and vote while others would not.  I would like you to say how likely you think it is that you would actually go and vote using a ten point scale.  One means you think you will be certain not to vote, 10 means you will be absolutely certain to vote if their was to be a general election tomorrow..

 

Certain not to vote             Certain to vote
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

 

If someone is 10/10 certain to vote, they are given a weight of 1.0. If someone is 9/10 certain to vote they are given a weight of 0.9  and so on.

This suggest across the 6 polls, the average turnout predicted using this method is 65%.

However this has changed during the campaign, starting at 60% back in late January, and ending at 71% in our final poll.

It will be interesting to see how close this analysis is to the final turnout figures.

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