SBP 29th April – Pressure on yes vote in EU Treaty Referendum2012.04.30
The past two weeks has seen the start of serious campaigning on the EU Treaty with a noticeable shift to news about the No camp. This has involved a series of Trade unions announcing that they are recommending that their members should vote No, and has also included some doubts being thrown on the treaty by Frances Presidential Election, where the lead candidate has suggested he will re-visit the treaty anyway if he is elected.
The impact of this new focus on the No vote is to give it something of a boost, but perhaps not as much as might have been anticipated. In today’s poll the No vote increases by 2% to 35%, while correspondingly the Yes vote drops back by 2% to leave it at 47%, with 18% still undecided. However once the Don’t Knows are stripped out of the analysis, this actually ends up with still 42% in the No camp and 58% in the Yes camp due to rounding.
Despite what many have seen as tough month for the Government parties, with the Household Charge and Water meters dominating, the government parties have survived relatively well in this months Sunday Business Post/RED C poll.
Fine Gael’s share of the vote is down 2%, but this is after a very strong showing in March, and means they still retain 32% of the first preference vote overall. This is a little down on that proportion they secured at the last election, but suggests they have weathered the storm of the last month better than many might have expected.
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