Paddy Power GE16 Poll – Dec 15

Published by: Richard Colwell

2015.12.03

Below are the key summary findings of the latest RED C Paddy Power poll in the run up to Election 2016.  The full report and charts can be downloaded at the end of these findings.

  • Fine Gael upward trend in support comes to an end in this Paddy Power poll, as support for the party falls back by 3%.  While the drop is within the margin of error, Fine Gael will be disappointed to see what had been a consistent upward trend come to an end.
  • Some signs that there may be life yet for Labour with an improved 9% first preference, up 2% from where they had been stagnating at 7% in recent months.  Though the picture for Leader Joan Burton is not so positive, with reduced personal satisfaction, and particularly low satisfaction among those suggesting they will vote for the party.
  • Fianna Fail secure 20% first preference support, up 1% since November, and remains at a level that the party has been recording in and around for the past few months.  Sinn Fein secure 18% support, the same as seen two weeks ago.
  • Independent candidates and other parties then secure 25% of the first preference vote.  With Independent candidates themselves securing 15%, 2% of which attributed towards the Independent Alliance candidates.  PBP-AAA secure 4%, Social Democrats 3%, Greens 2% and Renua 1%.
  • So it appears that lost Fine Gael support has drifted mainly towards their collation partners Labour, and to a lessor extent towards Fianna Fail.  Perhaps suggesting that initial rumblings about one party government have contributed towards this, or the fact that Labour have worked harder to ensure they get the credit for moves such as a possible vote on the 8th Amendment.
  • Our analysis of strength of voter support is interesting in as much that it suggests there is still a lot to play for between now and the General Election, with absolute loyal support for each party only in the low teens for most.  Fine Gael have the potential to increase this as much as 39%, but at the same time Labour has 25% possible first preference support, Fianna Fail 28% and Sinn  Fein 26%,  suggesting a very fluid electorate.
  • Perhaps a more clear measure of future behaviour is the voters perceptions on the coalition that would be best for Ireland, in which it is clear that  the largest grouping (43%) would like to see the current coalition back in government, but with many of these (26%) suggesting that this should be with the support of Independent candidates.

Full report below:-

Paddy Power December 2015 Poll Report

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