This increased support for the Yes camp comes despite the uncertainty that the recent Greek elections and that of Francois Hollande to President of France, have raised about how important the ratification of the treaty by Ireland may be. Whether this is due to the proliferation of Yes vote posters put up in past two weeks, or the queue of senior political figures backing the Yes campaign in the media in unclear, but a combination of these factors appears to have done their job to date, and had a significant impact on voter attitudes towards the upcoming Fiscal Treaty referendum.

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SBP 13th May 2012 Poll Report

The impact of this new focus on the No vote is to give it something of a boost, but perhaps not as much as might have been anticipated.  In today’s poll the No vote increases by 2% to 35%, while correspondingly the Yes vote drops back by 2% to leave it at 47%, with 18% still undecided.  However once the Don’t Knows are stripped out of the analysis, this actually ends up with still 42% in the No camp and 58% in the Yes camp due to rounding. 

Despite what many have seen as tough month for the Government parties, with the Household Charge and Water meters dominating, the government parties have survived relatively well in this months Sunday Business Post/RED C poll. 

Fine Gael’s share of the vote is down 2%, but this is after a very strong showing in March, and means they still retain 32% of the first preference vote overall.  This is a little down on that proportion they secured at the last election, but suggests they have weathered the storm of the last month better than many might have expected.

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SBP 29th Apr 2012 Poll Report

Part of this must be down to the high profile that Enda Kenny has achieved in his trips to the USA and China, and he gets the highest performance rating by some margin of all the main party leaders, with 23% giving him a performance rating of 8 or more out of 10.

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Paddy Power – 29th March Political Poll 2012

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Older voters are more likely to have paid, but almost half of those in the 18-54 year old age groups, who are liable state that they will not pay the charge.

Over 1 in 10 (13%) also claim that they are not aware if they are liable or not, and this tends to be those in younger age groups.  While a quarter (24%) state they know that they are not liable to pay.

To find out more on this and the EU treaty download the full report below:-

Paddy Power – 29th March Household Charge & EU Referendum Poll 2012

It appears that a few weeks of relatively good news stories surrounding the deferral of the bailout payment, positive noises about the economy in general and St Patricks day events has led some voters to return to the party.  Fine Gael secure 34% of the first preference votes in today’s poll, a rise in support of 4% in just three weeks.

EU Treaty
More good news for the government parties is the fact that the EU Treaty referendum still appears to be relatively well placed to be passed at this stage, if not completely secure.  The main change in voter attitudes in today’s poll appears to be that more voters have made up their mind how they thing they will vote, with the undecided voters down from 1 in 4 three weeks ago to closer to 1 in 5 in today. 

In total 60% of those likely to vote say they will vote Yes in support of the Treaty.

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SBP 25th Mar 2012 Poll Report

The study also shows that growth in smartphone and tablet ownership will increase further in 2012. By the end of 2012, 71% of the Irish population expect to own a smartphone, while 41% expect to own a tablet.

Currently, smartphone ownership is biased towards the younger age groups but with the increasing penetration in the market, this could very well change in the near future.

The survey also shows that smartphone users in Ireland are positively disposed to advanced mobile features such as mobile payments/wallets.

Download the Media Report here for further findings from the study, in Ireland and across the World:

Connecting the World (MEDIA REPORT) – IT Tel Syndicated Study Winter 2012 (RED C-WIN)

About the Connecting the World – Mobile and Social Media Trends Study

This ground-breaking study was conducted towards the end of 2011 by WIN, the Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research. RED C conducted the Irish part of the survey. 40,557 respondents were interviewed globally, representing more than 1.2 billion of the adult world population. In Ireland, 1,014 adults aged 18 years or older were interviewed. In every country, the most appropriate methodology for the survey was used and quotas were enforced to ensure a nationally representative sample of the total population.

The following topics are covered in the research:

• Device ownership for smartphone, feature phone, desktop, laptop, tablet, web-enabled TV/gaming console and mp3 player with internet/wi-fi access.
• Future purchasing intent for these devices.
• Preferred brands for future purchases of these devices.
• Time spend online for personal, work and social media reasons.
• Key online activities.
• Preferred devices for key online activities.
• Social media sites used for personal and work reasons.
• Current and future use of advanced mobile phone features, e.g. mobile payments, mobile tickets, geo based promotions, mobile banking and mobile boarding card.
• Barriers for use of advanced mobile phone features.
• Demographic breakdown.

The full report is available for purchase for €5,000 excluding VAT. This report includes detailed demographic analysis for Ireland on all the key topics above.

About the WIN Network and RED C Research

RED C Research & Marketing Ltd, the independent market research agency, are part of the WIN Network, the world’s largest and oldest network of independent market research and polling firms. The WIN Network is made up of 68 of the largest independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries, with a combined revenue of over $600 Million and covering 89% of the world’s market. These companies came together to create a global platform for market research, while delivering the highest quality of expertise, professionalism and client care, at the most competitive price.

For more information, please contact Jimmy Larsen at jimmy.larsen@redcresearch.ie or by telephone +353 1 818 6316.

At the same time party support remains relatively stable, but Sinn Fein supports rises 1%, to leave them as the second largest party for the first time in a RED C poll.

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SBP 4th Mar 2012 Poll Report

The report also shows that consumers continue to hold on to their purse strings but that there is potential for higher spend on low cost treats, such as food and drinks for in-home entertainment.

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RED C – Credit Crunch Tracking – Jan 2012

With their support under pressure, the last thing the Government needs is a European Referendum to push through.  Particularly when voter attitudes towards that referendum in today’s poll are taken into account, as they suggest it may be quite hard to get it passed.  Firstly, the great majority of voters (72%) believe that the government should hold a referendum on the new Treaty.  This makes it far more difficult for the government to push through without one. 

At the same time, current vote intentions on a possible European Treaty referendum, albeit before arguments have been made, suggest winning the referendum could be a struggle.  Only just over half of all those who expressed a preference (52.6%) say they would support the referendum.  Historically this is a very low start point to push any referendum through, as it is far easier to fight on the reason not to do something and keep the status quo, than fight for change. 

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SBP Jan 29th Poll Report