Brexit – A Viable Possibility Should a Referendum be Called

Published by: Aoife Marron

2016.01.07

New research from RED C and WIN/Gallup International has found that the majority of UK adults would vote to leave the European Union.

In a recent pan European study conducted, the UK shows the highest level of supporting a “Brexit” from the European Union. If we discount those who don’t know (21%), the UK are the only country where a majority of those with an opinion would elect to leave – 54%. This is in comparison with one in three citizens (32%) – across the 14 countries* polled – who would prefer to leave the European Union and 22% of the Irish adult population specifically. The story in certain countries has changed significantly. Significant shifts in opinion have occurred in some European countries since last year’s study; 42% of those in Italy now want to leave compared with 25% one year ago and in Belgium this figure has risen from 25% in 2014 to 33% 2015. In the other direction Greeks appear to see their future is stronger insider Europe – 62% now want to stay vs. 53% one year ago.

More than 15 years after it was launched, we have also seen an increase in those who, if given the choice, would turn their back on the Euro.   Almost one in two (47%) would prefer their national currency, an increase from 44% last year. But again the picture is varied between countries. In those without the Euro there is very little appetite for it – UK 6%, Sweden 12%, Romania 26%, Denmark 13% and Bulgaria 9%.   However of those countries currently using the Euro, support has increased over the last twelve months in France, Germany, Greece, Ireland and Spain.   Italy has seen the greatest shift in opinion where a plurality (47%) would now prefer a return to the Lira.

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Ireland’s response

A new study from RED C Research has found that the majority (78%) of Irish adults state that were a referendum to be held in the morning as to whether Ireland should remain part of the European Union, they would vote to retain membership. This figure is above the European average of the 14* countries polled at 64%.

The research shows that the youngest and oldest adults in Ireland are more positively disposed to the country’s membership status with both those under 25 (86%) and those over 65 (90%) favouring to stay in the European Union should a vote be cast.

For those currently unemployed, Ireland’s European Union membership is more contentious, with just under 7 in 10 (68%) stating a preference to stay if asked in a referendum.

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Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

RED C interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1010 adults across the Republic of Ireland online between November 5th – November 10th 2015. This survey is part of a wider survey conducted among a representative sample of 13,857 adults across 14 countries throughout Europe.

About WIN/Gallup International

WIN/Gallup International is the leading association in market research and polling and is made up of the 77 largest independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries with combined revenue of over €550 million and covering 95% of the world’s market.

For more than 60 years WIN/Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities.

The accumulated expertise of the Association is formidable – they have internationally renowned experts in public opinion, Third World issues, advertising, and media research as well as in commercial fields such as IT/telecommunications, healthcare, retail, economics, corporate research and so on. Members are at the leading edge of technical and methodological developments, which have impacted on not only the research industry but also the whole commercial world.

Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details see website: www.wingia.com

For more information:

 

Aoife Marron

Research Project Manager

RED C Research & Marketing Ltd.

aoife.marron@redcresearch.ie

+353 181 86316

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